Baseball Season Musings

Baseball begins on Sunday night so it’s time to make last minute preparations with regards to betting trends and teams to watch. We’ll start this article off with pitchers to play and to fade.

Five Pitchers to back:

Wade Davis, TB – This 5^th starter made six starts last year for the Rays going 2-2 with a 3.72 ERA on the season. Davis started his career giving up one run and three hits against the Tigers in seven innings of work last September. While he did struggle against the Red Sox in his next start, Davis gave up just six earned runs in his last four starts of the season against the likes of Baltimore, Seattle and the Yankees. Should be noted that Davis has an 8.80 ERA in spring training but he’s been tinkering with new pitches.

Brian Matusz, Baltimore – The bandwagon is big for this tall left hander as a good spring training has backed a nice finish to his 2009 season. Matusz is 1-2 with a 3.10 ERA in five outings this spring striking out 19 while walking only 3.

Homer Bailey, Cincinnati – This phenom’s career couldn’t be more helter-skelter. Bailey spent 2007 and 2008 getting smacked around going 4-8 in 17 games over those two seasons. Last year, he improved a bit going 8-5 with a 4.53 ERA. Bailey has made three outings this spring giving up just four runs in 11.2 innings pitched. While his strikeout numbers aren’t very gaudy (3), he seems to have fixed his walk problem that plagued him earlier in his career.

Ricky Nolasco, Florida – Nolasco spent some time in the minors last season and it seemed to clear his head. While the 5.06 ERA last season is unsightly, he still managed to go 13-9 striking out 195 while walking only 44. This spring, Nolasco is 3-0 with a 1.78 ERA in five starts striking out 21 while walking only one batter. Ricky seems to be in midseason form already.

Luke Hochevar, Kansas City – Much like Homer Bailey, Hochevar has been inconsistent throughout his career. The right hander is 13-26 with a 5.88 ERA in 51 starts over his career. Still Luke has shown flashes of brilliance. He’s 0-1 with a 3.94 ERA in four starts this spring. This is purely a speculative play as I feel that the Royals will be a team on the rise this season and for that to happen, Luke will have to lead the charge.

Four hurlers to fade:

Cole Hamels, Philadelphia – While we don’t like telling people to fade the Phillies at any time, this left hander’s inconsistency presents opportunities to jump on a juicy runline. Hamels is a top 5 pitcher when he wants to be. The lefty went 10-11 with a 4.32 ERA last year allowing batters to hit .273 against him. This spring hasn’t been much better as he’s gone 1-1 with a 5.57 ERA over five starts. Hamels has given up 11 runs in 10.1 innings of work his last two outings and pitchers are supposed to improve instead of regress the closer the season comes.

Cliff Lee, Seattle – Of course the injury helps us here but I feel like even when he gets healthy, the left hander will be fade material. Lee expressed dismay at his trade from Philly to Seattle and has already been suspended once during spring training. In two starts, Lee has given up 11 hits and five runs during 5.2 innings of work. Lee’s move back to the American League could be a struggle this season as I feel like the Mariners may not live up to expectations.

Vicente Padilla, LA – The Dodgers named this right hander as their opening day starter and I’m not quite sure why. This head case seven months ago was released by a pitching starved Ranger team and went to LA where he experienced some success. Padilla’s been tattooed a bit during the spring giving up 19 hits and 10 runs in 14.1 innings of work as hitters are ringing him up to a tune of .306 BAA. I just don’t feel safe backing this right hander in games where he will be pitted against other aces.

Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore – Guthrie had one of the worst seasons of his short career last year going 10-17 with a 5.04 ERA. The right hander hasn’t been much better during the spring giving up 19 runs and 28 hits in 20.2 innings of work. Not only that, the righty has walked 13 batters as well.

Two teams that will surprise:

Kansas City Royals (Over 72.5) – This could be a surprise to some as the Royals have gone over this total only once in the last five seasons. The AL Central is wide open with each of their teams featuring problem spots. The lack of a closer will hurt the Twins while an inconsistent lineup could plague both Detroit and Chicago. Kansas City is 12-11 in the spring but what’s been impressive is that this lineup has scored the 2^nd most runs in the cactus league 175. The team added Scott Podsednik, Jason Kendall and Chris Getz to the lineup as well as Rick Ankiel who will bolster the middle of a lineup that features Billy Butler who most feel will break out this season. Alex Gordon’s injury will be a bit of a concern but when he returns the lineup becomes a lot better.

The team cleaned out a lot of crap in their organization letting Sidney Ponson, Jamey Wright and Coco Crisp go among others. Pitching-wise the team has Zack Greinke who had an amazing season last year for the Royals. The team has Gil Meche, Luke Hochevar, Brian Bannister and Kyle Davies rounding out the rotation. Meche is a solid number two and is a lot better than the 6-10 record he had last season. Hochevar, as noted above, is due for a breakout as is Bannister who went 7-12 last season.

Evidence that the team is capable of solid pitching is their 4.05 ERA from the beginning of the season to June 17^th. Unfortunately, after that date, the team put forth a 5.32 ERA. That was due to an inconsistent bullpen which features more players who struggled to meet expectations in Kyle Farnsworth and Juan Cruz. Joakim Soria is a top 10 closer in the league.

This play is purely speculative but something I’m intrigued by. The Royals have the pieces to make a run at the AL Central and with a price of EVEN or better on some sportsbooks, it’s worth a shot to bet on Kansas City.

Cincinnati Reds (Over 79.5 wins) – Much like the Royals, a few things need to break our way for this team to contend. They spent the offseason making a big splash by signing Cuban born Aroldis Chapman who will start the season in the minors but figures to make an impact at some point this season. Orlando Cabrera is another underrated signing for Cincinnati. The Reds have improved their win total over the past three seasons and feature some youthful stars.

Last season Cincinnati had seven players go under the knife and featured eight players who made their major league debuts. The Reds were supposed to be a factor last year but ended up using their projected starting lineup only 10 times. Despite all this, the team racked up 20 wins in September and October giving them momentum coming into this year.

The lineup features 1^st baseman Joey Votto who became the first Red since Sean Casey and Ken Griffey Jr. to hit over .300. Votto dealt with stress issues last year but still managed to lead them in most major hitting categories. Scott Rolen mans the other hot corner for the Reds and he provides the leadership a young squad needs. In the 40 games Rolen started in, the Reds went 27-13. Cabrera’s addition now gives Cincinnati three gold glove winners in the infield as Brandon Phillips also received the honor.

The Reds pitching staff has a ridiculous amount of depth featuring veterans Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. Those two will be atop the rotation with young talent Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey anchoring down the back end. Bailey went 6-1 with seven quality starts over his nine final outings. The fifth spot is up in the air right now but former 17 game winner Edinson Volquez is expected to return by late summer from Tommy John surgery. Not only that, but as mentioned above Aroldis Chapman will provide a boost when he joins the 25 man roster. The bullpen ranked third in the NL in ERA and is completely back. The Reds are locked and loaded there with Arthur Rhodes and Daniel Ray Herrera being their LOOGYs while Nick Masset and Mike Lincoln will be the right handed setup men for consistent closer Francisco Cordero.

Much like the AL Central, the NL central is wide open and can be won by anyone. Cincinnati has the talent to contend and could have done the same last year with better health.

One team who will fall short:

Los Angeles Dodgers (Under 84 wins) – Hard to believe that a team who won 95 games could fall so far but the perfect storm has hit LA. An offseason of tumult has hit tinseltown with the McCourt’s fighting for control of the team during a nasty divorce. Because of that the team wasn’t as busy in the offseason losing players such as Randy Wolf, Jon Garland, Juan Pierre and Orlando Hudson. In the process they didn’t really manage to bring anyone spectacular in outside of Vicente Padilla who will be their opening day starter.

The Dodgers lineup is not the issue for the 2010 version. Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Manny Ramirez pace a strong outfield for LA. Ramirez has already mentioned that this may be his last season as a Dodger as he’s ready to move on. Could this mean a midseason trade if he becomes a distraction? Definitely something to consider as we head into the season. The infield features a lot of steady production from players such as James Loney, Rafael Furcal and Casey Blake. The team’s bench is solid but nowhere near last year when they could pull Juan Pierre off and not have much drop off.

LA’s issues will come from the rotation. Vicente Padilla is not an opening day starter. The righty has been known to have some mental issues from time to time and his inconsistency is not what this team needs. Behind him are talented Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda and Chad Billingsley but each have questions. Kershaw had a 2.56 ERA in his last 10 starts but went 0-3 in that span because he was unable to go that far. Billingsley managed three wins in his last 19 starts last year after starting out hot. Kuroda’s got injury issues making only 21 starts last season. The fifth spot is up in the air but could go to Ramon Ortiz or Charlie Haeger. The bullpen features a solid array of arms but Joe Torre’s overuse forced them to the DL multiple times in 2009. Jonathan Broxton’s 85.7 percent save success rate was just ninth best in the NL.

This is a talented team but the McCourt’s off the field issues combined with a fragile roster make me believe that they won’t win an improved NL West. The Rockies figure to be a factor along with a Giant team that has the best rotation in the NL and a Diamondback team with a young lineup that could be tough to deal with. Some books have the under at +125 or +130 which is a great price for something like this.

Bracket Buster Saturday Selection

For clarification purposes, this game is at the Palestra yet it's a Hawks home game. Those nice people think they can beat us away from their gym so they do the right thing and play it on a neutral court. We will outnumber them at this game as the SJU program is apathetic right now towards Martelli and it seems like their regressing.

This game is a Big 5 game and the 9.5 looks mighty juicy to those not in the know. I've been hard on the Owls lately constantly trying to fade them because I hadn't been a believer. I'm coming around...Three scorers with Moore starting now and Fernandez off the bench is just an amazing way to be. The Hawks can't matchup with Eric and Allen on the inside. O'Brien doesnt want to bang with the bigs. Williamson can only "shut down" one of our guys which leaves a few of the others.

All that said, weird things happen at the Palestra....I think for a half this is close. Maybe less then a half but eventually our depth and sheer awesomeness will overwhelm the Hawks. I never like to lay so many points so I don't have any official plays. Leans for me are St. Blow's 1H, Temple game and the game Under.

Also adding:
Boston -2 -- Delaware is hideous. Blue Hen fans arent going to show up much for this one.

JMU +4 -- The Dukes are a live road dog in this one. Canisius may have trouble with Bowles.

BC/UNC Over 143.5 -- I think that these two will play in the 70's. BC has so many weapons and they play so much better at home.

Buffalo +1.5 -- I think the Bulls are the better team outright. Having watched some St. Peter's games...they play better at home but it's not exactly intimidating in their little gym.

Colorado/Kansas Over 145 -- This is going to be one of those lopsided games where it's like 92-65 or something. Kansas will do most of the work in helping this hit.

Fordham/URI Over 148 -- See above except replace Kansas with Rhode Island.

Eastern Illinois -5 -- Simple fade of NIU on the road.
EIU/NIU Over 141 -- On the road NIU gives up almost 73 points per game. I don't think EIU will mind getting up and down.

Radford -7 -- No Fields for UNCW. Radford's a pretty respectable squad with a couple of good D-1 talents.
Over 141 -- Radford averages 77 at home and UNCW gets a bit leaky away from home too.

WKU/Arky State Over 135.5 -- Western Kentucky overs are on a roll as of late so I'm continuing to ride the wave. Last 5 games they are averaging 80 points.

Wisky Green Bay -5 -- Indiana State is still banged up. I think this one gets ugly.

Long Beach State +7 -- Idaho's guards will meet some just as good as them in LBS. They are 10-5 since 1997 against the Vandals too.

Zags/Pepperdine Over 146.5 -- The Waves don't play much defense so I think the Zags could get in the 80's or 90s.

Saturday's Selections

Temple/URI -- Needless to say this is a huge game for both teams. Temple got undressed by Richmond last week and had a week to get ready for Rhode Island. They won over the Rams earlier this season with horrible officiating not in their favor and a lot going against them. It was one of the more impressive wins this season. Now they return home in a game that may not have much atmosphere outside the students...The bigger issue involves Juan Fernandez. The PG is still dealing with lingering concussion symptoms. At one point this week he sat in a dark room all day to rest his head. This is a bad game for him to miss because URI's press will eat them alive without him. Ramone Moore filled in well offensively but the offense lacked direction in Richmond without Fernandez. If you held me to it, I don't think Fernandez is going to play in this one. He hasn't practiced much outside of some light shooting. If he doesnt play it comes down to Lavoy Allen who tore URI up inside at their place. The Rams are coming off a tough home loss to Richmond and will be focused heading to Philly.

My pick for this one is URI +5 and a small small small lean to the over. I'm not sure if the Owls win this. If I knew that Juan was going to play, I'd feel a whole hell of a lot better with this one. I'll keep you posted if things change. RIght now URI +5 and the over.

Elsewhere:
Baylor/Missou Over 144.5 -- The over has hit three straight times in Baylor in this matchup. The Bears average over 80 points at home.

Drake +3 -- Indiana State's injury problems lead me to take the road team in this one. Drake's not a horrible road team.

Nebraska +15 -- Texas isn't playing well right now and the Huskers have had ATS success against the Longhorns.

JMU +11 -- This is a matchup of two teams that have talent but can't decide if they are good or bad. VCU's road problems rear their ugly head here. The key is the Sanders/Bowles matchup. Whomever wins this one wins the game. VCU may win but this one's gonna be close.

Auburn/Miss State Over 143.5 -- 8 of the last 12 have gone over. The Tigers score 70 points a game but give up that much as well.

WKU/UALR Over 138.5 -- I'm going to keep pressing the WKU overs until they stop hitting. The Hilltoppers will get to 75 or so in this one.

North Texas -5.5 -- Denver is 0-9 ATS on the road and is outscored by an average of 8 points. I think UNT runs them out of the building.

UVA +6.5 -- This one is tighter then people think.The hoos have been off for the week and are itching to get out there. Landesburg/Delaney is going to be one hell of a matchup to watch.

La Tech -8 1H -- Hawaii is outscored by 14 in the 1st half of their road games and are playing with a lack of guards now that Jeremy Lay is out for the season. This one's gonna get ugly.

San Jose State +7 -- Adrian Oliver and the boys are a whole different team at home. I think they hang around in this one against Utah State.

Saturday's Selections

We begin with the Owls and Spiders here in Richmond. Yours truly will be in attendance rooting on the cherry and the white. I'm not gonna lie...this matchup scares me. I'd like to see the Owls play a lot of zone and force Richmond to shoot them out of it. If the Spiders choose to zone up the Owls, I'd hope that Moore/Jefferson/Randall come in and slash thru it. Time and time i've short sold Temple this season because I keep getting this nagging feeling that the bottom is going to drop out on them. There's a ton of scoring options on this team but they rarely put it all together with all of them coming together. I've been real impressed with this Spider team and there's no reason why that they couldnt be a thorn in someone's side in the tourney. They are trying to hype this game here in Richmond but weather may keep some away. I'm going to short-sell this team one more time and take Richmond -1. The Spiders take care of business at home in a game that will be ugly as sin.

Nova +2 -- Georgetown was lucky to keep it close the first time these two met. The Vilecat guards are head and shoulders better then the Hoyas. Yarou has to get Monroe in foul trouble for them to be in good shape.

Gonzaga +5 -- I know that the Zags are a flaky team but I feel like the loss to San Francisco focused them a whole lot more. I don't see the Zags losing until the NCAA tourney. Their so much more deeper then Memphis.

Old Dominion +3 -- Let's just say there may be circumstances involved with this game that don't help the Rams out. Monarch size plus experience wins out here unfortunately. Also may not be the biggest crowd depending on the weather.

UCLA +5 -- I'm not sold on Cal. The Bruins have been a drastically better team at home this season. I think they keep it close.

Michigan +1 -- The Wolverines take care of business at home. I like this spot especially since the Badgers have lost three of their last four away from home.

Missouri -4 -- Simply playing the spot against the Buffs who extended themselves big time against Kansas and fell short. I dont think they've got two of those games in a row.

Oregon State -1.5 -- I know the Beavers are flaky (see Seattle game) but why would I think of backing the Ducks in this one. I think the Beavs beat them again.

Wichita State -13.5 -- Indiana State is banged up big time and Wichy smells blood in the water. The Shockers win this one easy.

Troy/WKU Over 143 -- This one went over in Troy and I can't see much of a difference in this one. WKU's game against Monroe would have gone over if the Hilltoppers didnt have a brain fart at the end of regulation.

Thursday's Picks....

Before we get to the picks, just a comment on my Owls. Time after time they have surprised me this season and last night was another time. I've constantly short sold them waiting for the bottom to drop out. I don't like their chances in Richmond but we'll see.

Western Michigan -4 -- I've ridden this team a lot this year. I like their chances at home against Miami Ohio. Kool and McLemore are solid players and I think this team will be a factor in the MAC tourney.

Charleston -10 -- Simmons is probable for this one. I know the Mocs have improved but Charleston is especially tough at home. Just ask UNC.

WKU/ULM Over 136 -- Monroe has no problems getting up and down the court averaging over 70 points a game at home. They also average around that much on defense as well.

Valpo +3 -- Is there a team undersold more then these guys. I know Wright State has the better record but Valpo are no slouches. I think they win this one outright.

Murray State -12 1H -- The Racers are outscoring their opponents by DD in the 1st half of their home games.

UCLA -4.5 -- Stanford's road record speaks for itself. They are remarkably bad away from home.

Portland/Gonzaga Over 145 -- This one's gonna be high scoring. The Zags should get to 80 to help this one out.

Wednesday's Selctions

Yikes...yesterday was my first trainwreck of a day. I don't see that as being a trend...stick with me...we'll be fine.

Temple/Duquesne -- The Owls return home before their big game here in Richmond. Temple played great against a shorthanded La Salle team. Next up is Duquesne....a talented but utterly ridiculous team. Bolding and Saunders have to be 1 and 1a in focus for the Temple defense. No doubt in my mind that the Dukes are the more athletic team but they don't play very smart. All that said, I feel this is a close one. Temple has won the last three by 5 points each. This game will be a little more methodical then the Dukes would like because Temple just won't let it get too nuts. Give me Duquesne +13 tonight. The total is right on so i wouldnt touch that. I'm thinking something like 61-50 tonight.

Elsewhere:
UVA -5 -- Line is very fishy. I dont know how NC State wins their games. Outside of Gonzalez and Tracy Smith, this team is devoid of consistent options. Wood and Horner pick and choose when they want to show up. Granted, UVA isnt as good as their record but I think the Hoos win this one easily at home. Maybe they struggle a bit at the start after their win over UNC but Tony Bennett is one of the best coaches in the country.

William and Mary +12 -- We gave you Drexel on Sunday in their game at Williamsburg. Now the Tribe are in Norfolk taking on the Monarchs. ODU is only 6-6 TS against the Tribe in Norfolk. I think William and Mary uglies this up enough that they keep it close in the end.

St. Louis -5 -- So Nicholson is questionable yet the line falls 1.5 points? St. Louis is the better team in this game but the Bonnies have been real pesky this season. Four of their last five road games settled by single digits. Still, I'll take the Billikens in this one.

Tu

I didnt post it and didnt add it to my record but I was actually on two unders yesterday. Never again....such a tough way to go.

ECU/UCF Over 133.5 -- I realize both offenses have fallen off since last year but I still sense a trackmeet in this one. I'd take the Pirates but they burned me against Rice who is much worse. I'm thinking this one makes it to the 70s.

SMU/Southern Miss Over 119 -- I just find it so hard to believe that this doesnt go over. Both average approx 68 points per game. Prolly a trap but I'll fall for it.

TCU/BYU Over 142 -- The Cougs averaging about 82 points per game. I dont think TCU would mind running either.

Air Force +18 -- Same rule applies here as Toledo did too. Low O/U and high spreads favor the underdog. I think AFA hangs around.

Sunday's Selections

Interesting day yesterday. I want to see more time for Ramone Moore as a zone buster for the Owls. I expect us to grind Duquesne into the ground before prolly falling to Richmond on Saturday.

X/Fordham Over 145 -- I feel like the Muskies will do most of the heavy lifting for this. If X can get to 85 or 90 I feel comfortable this hits.

St. Joe/Duquesne Over 143 -- St. Joe's has one of the worst defenses statistically in the country. The Dukes have a lot of weapons. I think this one is a get up and down affair.

Northern Colorado/Montana State Over 137.5 -- These two played earlier and MSU pounded UNC. I feel like payback's a bitch and this one gets up there points-wise. I am concerned that Montana State averages approx 63 on the road but I think once again, the home team does a lot of the heavy lifting.

Drexel +4 -- The Dragons are hot right now. The Tribe is going the other way so I'm going to take my philly boys in a game that they can win outright with stingy defense and timely offense.

Saturday's Selections

Temple/La Salle -- I think Temple wins this game. It was a bad mix of foul trouble, homecooking from the refs and a hot Charlotte team that contributed to their loss. I dont know if I can take Temple -11.5 because I think that's an awful lot for this game. If the Explorers throw one of their clunkers then yes that's a good play. I don't see it coming as they play us tough always. I'm not playing the game but IF you must......Take La Salle +11.5 and I'd even consider a small play on the over. The Owls defense has been a bit leaky lately and I feel like this game could have both teams make the 60's.

My plays:
Rhode Island -10 -- I don't think GW can keep up with the Rams. If URI gets their pace, which im thinking they will, this game will not be close. The Colonials don't have the firepower to keep up with them.

OK State/Missouri Over 145 -- Both teams will want to run in this one. I think this thing is played in the 70's. Missou averages almost 88 at home. That should be plenty.

St. Louis +7.5 -- I'm banking on St. Louis in this one as I think the Spiders struggle to generate momentum without many fans and with the stingy Billiken defense.

Washington -7.5 -- The Cougs won't know what hits them up in U-Dub. I would have thought this would have been a lot higher of a spread. The Huskies are pretty damn good at home. Don't see it being close.

Auburn Pick -- Tigers 7-5 at home with and have won the last two games at home in this series. I think they make it three today.

New Orleans/Western Kentucky Over 123.5 -- WKU will want to quicken the pace and despite UNO's struggling offense, I feel like they will make this game into the 60's or 70's. Just need one team to do the scoring and I feel confident in WKU to do that.

East Carolina -6 -- I dont like making this pick without LuDawg's opinion but I feel confident that this team is better then Rice. Many offensive weapons for the Pirates.

UTEP/UAB Over 131.5 -- I know the Blazers play good defense but I'm not confident enough in them shutting down UTEP. Outside of last year's game on March 4th, this one's been a scorefest. I'm hoping for that once again. BEST PLAY OF THE DAY.

Pacific -3 -- This team just wins games. I love them today against Riverside who I have made fade material lately. I can't imagine them having much of a homecourt advantage.

San Jose State +16 -- Homestand got this team right. I like them to keep it close with Utah State.

Pepperdine +1.5 -- Not too bad of a team. No real reason why I like this but i'm on it.

1/28 Selections

Bad night last night all around. Owls got bitten by homecooking from the Refs. Certainly told me we're not as deep as I thought and that Fernandez and Allen can't get in foul trouble.

Wake Forest +5 -- Think the Demon Deacons can win this one outright. Ga Tech is so flaky. Shut down Lawal and Favors and that team doesnt scare me as much.

Georgia State +16.5 -- Small over unders have me leaning to the underdog getting a ton of points in this one.

Citadel/Ga Southern Over 125 -- This one's gonna be scary but i'll take the team at home who will try to push the pace. Ga Southern's lack of defense should help me on this one too.

Charleston +6 -- Better team getting six points? I'll take it. Steph Curry isn't walking thru that door!

UNT/WKU Over 140 -- Love the pace in this one. Both teams have no problem picking it up. I think this one is played in the 70's.

St. Mary's/Pepperdine Over 148 -- I'm thinking SMC gets to the 80's. With that end Pepperdine can get to the 60's.

Really looking hard at UC Davis too.

Wednesday's Selections

As always, we'll start with the Temple game. This is a tough one for me as Charlotte's hot right now and part of me deep down is still not convinced in this Owls team. They are due to lose but the question is do the Niners have what it takes. Last year Lavoy Allen had a big game against them but this is a different Niners team. They are deficient size-wise but have speed and a nice backcourt. I'm making no official play on this game as I'd really like to see what the Owls do in this one. They arent exactly entering this game on good form. Their defense has been a bit leaky lately excluding the Fordham game. There's better games to bet on in this card then this one. It'll show me a lot if Temple pulls this out.

Elsewhere:
William and Mary -3 -- JMU's homecourt isn't that impressive. The Dukes are inconsistent at best. They may have more athleticism but I think the Tribe is the better team. Can't afford to lose games like this as they actually have a decent resume for an at-large bid.

UNC Wilmington +6 -- Seahawks are the deeper team. Hofstra's bench is kinda short which won't help against the style of UNCW.

Western Michigan +1 -- I've made some money off these guys so I'll take a chance with them at home and the short number.

La Salle/Fordham Over 140 -- I think the Explorers have their way with Fordham. Moderately to quick paced game benefits La Salle. Despite Fordham's scoring struggles I think LS's defense will be more then accommodating.

Tennessee/Vandy Over 146 -- Two quick paced teams. This one's going to be played in the 70's.

Tuesday's Selections

Unders will rarely be on my card again.

Maryland -7 -- The Canes don't impress me much. The Terps balanced scoring will be too much for Miami. Clemson/BC Over 136 -- BC is just what Clemson asked for with regards to livening up their offense. I think this one gets up and down. What does concern me is Stitt not playing but I think the Tigers get it done. Kentucky -6.5 -- The Wildcats streak won't end in South Carolina. Not enough horses to keep up. Might be close in the beginning but 2nd half they'll pull away. Rutgers/Marquette over 138 -- Rutgers gives up 82 on the road while Marquette scores that much at home. I just hope the Scarlet Knights do enough to hold up their end.

Monday's Selections

4-0 day yesterday made that debacle in the NFL feel better.

St. Joe -6.5 -- At first I thought this was an easy bet but then I wondered about St. Blows and the possibility that they could actually lose this. The Hawks are the better team even though they are struggling big time. They are coming off a win at home against Dayton. Penn has played much worse this season. The Hawks will have their presence at the Palestra.

Under 144 Penn/St. Blow's -- I don't think this is a pretty game. I'm thinking something to the tune of 70-58 in this game placing it under.

Idaho/Boise Over 145 -- The Broncs are more then generous defensively on the road giving up nearly 78 points a game away from home.

SIU/WKU Over 135 -- This isnt your defense-based SIU teams from the past. These guys score 72 points at home. I think this game is moderately paced enough that we get to the 70's and go over this total.

Sunday's Selections

I'm not really in LOVE with anything today. This card is very mediocre but the gambler in me needs to make some plays.

FSU/GT Under 135 -- Two of the better defensive teams in the conference. I think this one could be played in the 60's.

Seton Hall -2 -- Go figure Pittsburgh. I think SH is the more athletic team and should take care of business at home.

Penn State/Wisky Over 115 -- A total this low...I'll take my chance on the over.

Creighton/Missou State Over 138 -- Both teams average in the 70's so I feel like this could be a game played in the 70's.

As I said above...I don't love this card but it's just a few thoughts.

Saturday's Selections...

As always, I'll start out with the Temple game. I have this very sneaky feeling that Fordham covers. I'm not touching this game at all neither total nor spread. One of my personal rules is to never lay that many points on the road. Next up for the Owls is Charlotte on the road which will be tough. I feel like this is an ugly game from the start. If you forced me to take something in this one, give me the under at 128 but i'm not releasing this as a play.

Official Plays:
Drexel -5.5 -- Hofstra just doesnt have the manpower to keep up with Drexel. The Dragons are ridiculously inconsistent but they'll D up Jenkins enough that Hofstra won't be able to score.

Ohio State +5.5 -- West Virginia's not exactly playing great basketball right now. I like the Buckeyes athletes and speed to keep this one close.

Richmond +1 -- GW may be the more athletic team but I'll take the smarter Spiders who won't lose two in a row. There will be a nice Spider presence at the game.

UCLA -1.5 -- Not that I'm a big fan of the Bruins right now but I'm just not convinced of Wazzu. I think the Bruins take care of business at home in this one. The Cougs road woes continue.

Towson +6.5 -- Mason's road team is way different then when they play at home. Towson's not very good but with Hairston and Lee they can keep this one close and maybe win outright.

Over 145 UMass/Baylor -- I think the Guards on both teams do a lot of the work in getting this over. Someone's getting to the 80's in this one.

Over 135.5 UTEP/UCF -- I feel like both teams will get in the 70's. UCF's defense may have shown up against Houston but UTEP has more weapons and neither team will have a problem getting up and down the court.

William and Mary +3.5 -- Odd line as I don't think much changes for the Tribe even after losing to the Rams at VCU. That was a must win for VCU and I think the Tribe's methodical style wins them this game outright over ODU.

Duquesne -4 -- Go figure this line. The Dukes are home and play better there then on the road. I know the Bonnies won at UMass but I think the Dukes are the better team.

Stanford -6 -- Oregon's falling miserably as of late. I think the Cardinal will continue to play well at home. The Ducks streak of bad luck continues.

San Jose State -3.5 -- The Spartans win this one by a lot. New Mexico State nearly blew it at Hawaii and have to continue on the road with a short turn-around against the Spartans.

On the Radar:
Villanova -5 -- I don't see how St. Johns can keep up with the guards of the Vilecats.
Boston College +7.5 -- Both teams are so inconsistent but I think that the Eagles have more firepower then the Hokies do.
Illinois +1.5 -- There will be more Illini fans at this game then NW fans. Color me not a NW fan but I think Illinois is the better team.

Friday's Selections

Great day yesterday once again....San Jose State was an outright winner.

Charleston -3 -- Very odd that these teams are playing on back to back days but I'll lean to the home team who doesnt have to travel. Granted the travel isnt that far but I'll still lean to the team who is home in this one. Besides I like them more then Wofford.

Manhattan +4 -- They are a solid team at home. I'll take the short line in this one for a team that I think is better then Iona at home.

Northern Colorado/Sac State Over 137 -- UNC averages 91 points at home. They should have their way with Sac State.

Thursday's Selections

Thank goodness for my Owls and La Salle that made it a profitable night. Anyways, here's today's picks...

The Citadel +2 -- Close series at home for these two teams. For some reason, this game stood out for me.

Siena -8 1H -- Loyola will potentially be without their top two scorers for this one. I think Siena runs out on these guys and has a nice lead at half.

WKU/Troy Over 143 -- One team has scored at least 80 in the last three meetings of this series. I don't see that being a problem this year either.

Stanford -6.5 -- I'm hoping the bad Oregon State shows up. Stanford's pretty good at home.

San Jose State +7 -- Adrian Oliver and the boys should keep this close despite La Tech's record.

Cal Poly -1 -- Odd line as Riverside hasn't shown much this season. Then again neither has the Mustangs but I'll take them at home with a short number.

Wednesday's Selections

Record: 1-2

Alright, let's begin with the Owls and X....As mentioned many times in this thread I've been way off on my beloved Temple even though last week I did have UMass. I maintain this team has done it thru smoke and mirrors. Having watched X against Dayton the Muskies don't like being D'd up. Ryan Brooks has done an excellent job against the best player of the other team so Crawford will have a tough time. The Muskies looked mighty lost against Dayton without him. I really think that the Owls win this one. The students will be back and the place will be electric. Temple's won two straight at home against X and won a tough one last year in the A-10 tourney over them. Give me Temple -3 and my A-10 tourney bid plz.

MONSTER PLAY
Those of you who follow my threads know that I don't often tout plays as bigger then others. Too much pressure and too much to lose if they are wrong. I feel so strongly about this that I'm willing to go nuts on it. Give me La Salle -10. Last year I remember boasting about this team in this game and they came up just short. As a matter of fact, I remember the spread being 10 and it falling short. This year's game is even more lopsided. Penn is terrible...absolutely hideous. Bernadini may be back but even with him they arent that good. The key here for La Salle is getting Barrett back....I dont care if he plays or not but I love this. The Explorers are going to work hard to get Rodney Green back on track. He has struggled with his shot and has had his PPG go down as the season works along. There's no one on that team that can cover Green and oh yeah...then you got Aaric Murray (who should be an Owl). I think La Salle pounds them. I'm going to go big on the 1H and game spreads....

Elsewhere:
Duquesne/Rhode Island Over 146 -- This game will be so ridiculously paced that I think it sails over. URI should hopefully put up somewhere in the 80's.

Houston -12 -- UCF is such a young team who plays almost no defense on the road. I watched their game against Tulsa and I just can't see the Golden Knights keeping up with the Cougs.

Also on the radar:
Richmond/Charlotte Under 134
Western Michigan -2.5
UAB -11
App State/Georgia Southern Over 146
VCU/Tribe Under 141
UTEP +8

Will be back tomorrow to confirm these after more research.

Tuesday Evening Selections

Alabama +2 -- The lack of scholarship players has to eventually catch up to Tennessee. I'm not a believer in the Vols yet so I'm going to play the home dog tonight.

Over 137.5 A&M/Oklahoma -- The Sooners defense away from home allows almost 82 points per game. That's a shocking number and one of the reasons I'm going over in this game.

Miami/BC Over 133 -- Miami scores almost 80 at home and will want to get their trip to the Virginia schools out of their system. Look for the Canes to get to at least 70-75 which should be enough for this to hit.

Way too Early Bracketology...

Since I'm a college basketball nerd watching a basketball game between Fresno State and Louisiana Tech, I figured why not jump into the whole field of 65 thing....it can't be that hard now could it.

America East (1) -- Vermont
ACC (5)
Definitely In -- Duke, Clemson, UNC, GT, VT
On the Bubble -- FSU
Needs Work -- Maryland, UVA, NC State
Analysis: The conference is acquitting itself nicely right now. Plenty of opportunities for quality wins and if UVA hangs around and shows some staying power, a fanbase that wasn't in love with Tony Bennett may change their tune. Granted some of them loved him from the start but others needed some help
A-Sun (1) -- Campbell
Atlantic 10 (5)
Definitely In -- Xavier, Rhode Island, Temple, Richmond, Dayton
Needs Work -- Charlotte
Analysis: Who would have thought that this conference would have five pretty strong cases for tournament teams? As a Temple guy, who would have thought they'd be questionably the best team in the league. Richmond's out of conference schedule puts them in line for a nice seeding come tourney time. Xavier and Dayton were figured to be here so it's nice to see some company. This conference's RPI has been a surprise as well and if Charlotte does some good things, they have an outside shot.
Big East (9)
Definitely In -- West Virginia, Syracuse, Nova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, UConn, Louisville, Note Dame, Cincinnati
Needs Work -- St. John's, Marquette, Seton Hall
Analysis: As always the Big East will be there in the end with the most bids. This is the best conference in basketball and because of that there's a lot of chances for St. John's and Cincinnati and Marquette to get in the tourney. This may be the year they get 10 in especially with the downfall of the PAC 10 among others
Big Sky (1) -- Northern Colorado (WATCH OUT FOR THEM COME TOURNEY TIME)
Big South (1) -- Coastal Carolina
Big 10 (5)
Definitely In -- Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State, Minnesota,
Needs Work -- Illinois, Northwestern
Analysis: This conference is very top heavy. Still the four-six teams who could make the tournament won't be easy outs like in past years.
Big 12 (7)
Definitely In -- Texas, Missou, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Ok State, Texas A&M
Analysis: Can someone tell me why Kansas State is ranked so high? Mark it down now, with the right matchup, they are a first round out. Them and Wisconsin will fall early in the field of 65.
Big West (1) -- Pacific (MAJOR LEAGUE PAIN IN THE BUTT)
CAA (1) -- William and Mary
Analysis: I'd love to put the Rams here and trust me...they are one of a FEW teams who can do it but the inconsistency scares me. VCU's talent is right up there with ODU and Northeastern in this league but can they put it together in the conference tournament for a night after night. I don't think so i'll go with the Tribe and the best coach in the league. I can't see a 2nd bid here unless the Tribe run thru the league like a knife thru hot butter.
Conference USA (1) -- UAB
Needs Work -- Memphis, Tulsa, Marshall
Analysis: So odd to see Memphis not in the other category but they havent beaten anyone of note this season yet. Unfortunately for them, this conference doesnt give them many opportunities to do so so they may have to win the conference to ensure themselves a bid. Watch out for the Blazers who are a solid team and Tulsa could scare someone if they get in. They have a kid named Jordan who has a ton of moves in the post.
Horizon (1) -- Butler
Ivy League (2) -- Cornell, Harvard
Analysis: Harvard could mess this up a bit and there's a chance that this conference could get two bids if Harvard/Cornell split and Harvard somehow wins. Cornell's got a nice resume and would really force the committee to consider two teams.
MAAC (1) -- Siena
MAC (1) -- Western Michigan
MEAC (1) -- Morgan State
MVC (2) -- Northern Iowa, Wichita State
Analysis: Before last night's 0 for 3 by the Big 12 home teams...UNI handed the Big 12 their only non conference home loss when they won at Iowa State. This conference always produces a threat or two to the BCS conferences. Both of these teams could produce an upset or two.
Mountain West (2) -- UNLV, BYU
Work to be done: New Mexico, Colorado State
Analysis: Those transfers down in UNLV land are helping out big time. The Rebels playing like the teams under Jerry Tarkanian.
NEC (1) -- Quinnipiac
OVC (1) -- Murray State
PAC 10 (1) -- Washington
Analysis: There's a good chance this conference could get only one. No one is really separating themselves from the pack and the lack of good victories for any team here is alarming. California and Arizona State are also possible here.
Patriot (1) -- Lafayette
SEC (5) -- Kentucky, Tennessee, Miss State, Ole Miss, Vandy
Needs Work: Alabama, South Carolina, Florida
Analysis: The Volunteer story is a good one. That win over Kansas was amazing considering the circumstances. Unfortunately this is another team with an early exit in their future. Their style is conducive to a lot of turnovers which keeps a lesser seed hanging around.
Southern (1) -- Charleston
Southland (1) -- SE Louisiana
SWAC (1) -- Jackson State
Summit (1) -- IUPUI
Sun Belt (1) -- Western Kentucky
West Coast (2) -- St. Mary's and Gonzaga
WAC (1) -- La Tech

First time thru the list, I picked 58 teams.....After that I added VT, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Minnesota. Got to the final spot and decided to cheat putting Cornell in too.

We'll keep this updated and we'll add some teams/players to watch.

Time for more Opinions

For those who listen to Hardly Workin, I'm a very opinionated person and I don't mind sticking my neck out if I firmly believe in something. For those who don't listen to the show, time for you to get educated on some of my current sports beliefs. While some think I do it to spur calls for Greg's show, I actually believe this stuff with a lot of my heart.

- The hall of fame put Andre Dawson in yesterday. A lot of the talk surrounds those who didnt vote and those who didnt get in. To me, you get three chances to get in...if you arent good enough for the voters to put you in during that timespan then you arent worth it. I mean, this is the hall of fame...the best players in the sport...the guys that you will tell your children about when they ask about the greats in baseball. I feel that Cooperstown is watered down as it is. Bert Blyleven has been on the ballot for 13 years...to me, that's it. He's had WAY too many chances to get in yet his vote total keeps increasing. If you like the guy now, why didnt you like him then? Also, please don't try and tell me that Blyleven is a hall of famer. If you told me to name top pitchers in his decade, he doesnt come along in the top 15 or 20 which should clue you in that he's not a hall of famer.
- The bowls need to stay. I'll begin this with the fact that I was all for the playoffs in college football but i'm slowly coming away from that. No matter how big or small you make a playoff, you'll leave someone out. College football's regular season might be the most important regular season in all of sports putting emphasis on every game and every play because one loss can kill your season and can end your chances for the title. Yes, it is unfair that Boise and TCU didnt get a chance to play in the title game and i'm as angry as anyone else about this but i'm just not as jazzed about a playoff. Next year will be the true test for Boise who should be top 5 and will have the schedule to move up into the title contendership. I think the first change college football needs to make is to scrap the preseason top 25 and make the first one appear week 3 or 4 of the season. That hurt Boise/TCU more then their results as they couldnt make up enough ground to get to the title game.
- I want to start the hype for Boise and VT next season. The winner of this game should be in the title game by virtue of their victory over the other. Boise will be returning a ton of starters to this game while the Hokies will bring back their potent offense looking for O-Line help. If I was to set an early line for this game, i'd install the Hokies a four point favorite. Neutral field helps keep this line down and Boise being the more experienced team. It'll be interesting to see if Beamerball can prevent the Broncos from beating them with trick special teams plays.
- College basketball season is upon us and if i'm doing a power ranking system of the state/area schools i'd give William and Mary the lead with Richmond, ODU, VT and VCU rounding out the top five. Having seen the Hokies a few times this season, I'm impressed with their roster. That win over Seton Hall told me a lot since they didnt have Delaney and depended on Dorenzo Hudson to get them the victory. If they had a balanced effort against Temple, they'd be undefeated and higher up on the power poll.
- The Redskins....I go back and forth on them. At one point this season, I said they had one of the most talented defenses in the league and they do but I can't help but think the roster as a whole needs work. Much props to Jason Campbell for setting Clinton Portis in his place. Campbell took a beating this season and deserves to dish it out. Portis sat on the sidelines after a concussion and was a cancer to the locker room according to Campbell. Clinton's not going to be back and I think it's for the best. Keep Betts, Rock and Ganther for the backfield or trade down in the 1st round and take CJ Spiller and fill another hole as well. Shanahan will be a good hire but he's going to have to have patience. The O-Line and skill positions need some tweaking before this team can compete in the NFC East.
- Pitchers and Catchers Report in February....Is there a better phrase in sports? There's something about baseball that just warms the soul of many Americans across the country. I'm excited for baseball already even though we are in the heat of College basketball season.
- Winter Olympics are coming soon as well...Defintely stoked for this as well. Oddly I find myself becoming more patriotic during this time period. Looking forward to the curling and hockey among other events.
- NFL playoffs time...I've pretty much laid out my rooting interests. In the NFC ultimately it's about my Eagles. When/If they get eliminated, it's about exposing the Saints and the frauds that they are. Ideally i'd like it to be Philly who does it but Green Bay or Arizona would be suffice. I hope Favre and Dallas lose early as well. In the AFC, I've been partial to the Jets who are the cousins of the Eagles. Lewd fanbase/great fans, name spelling and same colors make them a fanbase that I can identify with. The Ravens entice me as well. Love watching the Rays (Lewis and Rice). Ultimately I'm predicting a Packers/Cardinals vs. Chargers superbowl. Green Bay has the defense to slow down the Vikings and Saints.
- Finally, being that March is a mere two months away, it's time for sports fans to plan the ultimate trip. Vegas for the first two rounds of March Madness is the place to be. Your living room is nice and all but try watching a game with a little cash on the line with a couple hundred of your closest friends in their college gear and screaming any basket in every game. It's something you have to experience and I think once you do, you'll make it an every year thing. Not to mention, there are plenty of pretty girls who go out there at this time as well.

For more of my opinions that I like to say on a day to day basis, tune in to Hardly Workin with Greg Burton, 4-7pm on ESPN 950 and ESPN950am.com